Tuesday, September 22, 2020

More in Store for 2020: Forecast of the Coming 60 Days

Ancient Theory, East & West Agrees

    Today, September 22, 2020, marks the solar term called “Autumn Equinox”. Today is also the date that signals the beginning of the 5th Qi of the Lunar Year 2020 (a.k.a. “Year of Gengzi”). While many healthcare workers and the general public in the US have been exhausted from the prolonged pandemic, there is reason to prepare for more. Both Eastern and Western Medicine are reaching a similar conclusion that there will be another infectious disease in addition to COVID-19. While the specific reasonings are different, both ancient and modern medicines have their roots in pattern reading based off the climate. 

Image Source: nbcnews. Copyright belongs to the original author/publisher.

    What this post is going to talk about is based on the same ancient theory from traditional medicine, Five Yun Six Qi (“The Theory” hereinafter) recorded in a Chinese Medical Classic book called "Yellow Emperor’s Canon of Internal Medicine (“Classic Book" hereinafter), compiled over 2200 years ago. The book states that traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is a gift from God and passed down through the legacy of key practitioners. Yes, this theory is the same theory that forecasted the time windows for SARS, Swine Flu, and the initial outbreak of COVID-19 by using the role the climate plays in the past, present, and future. 

    The Theory has always been able to predict epidemics and pandemics throughout thousands of years, which has long been verified through empirical evidence. The reason is simple: Viruses -- whether it is flu, swine flu, SARS, Ebola, COVID, or something else -- are on the earth all the time. Only when the climate is suitable for the spread of the virus can a pandemic occur, otherwise the viral infection would only be individual cases, not a super contagious epidemic. Using this logic, even a fantasy lab created virus needs the appropriate climate to be super conducive. The Theory is used to describe the laws of natural changes in its relationship to human beings through a 180-year cycle*, which can tell us when the climate is abnormal.

    For example, the lunar year of 2003 was the year of Guiwei, the Classic Book says: 

“..., during the second Qi, the fire is on, the material is transformed, the people are harmonious, the warm disease is severe…”. 

    As we know, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) broke out in 2003 right during the 2nd Qi time window.

    The lunar year of 2019 is the year of Jihai. According to the Classic Book: 

“Where Jueyin governs the heavens, the gasification runs the day after tomorrow, all the same politics, the gasification runs the same day, the weather is disturbed, the earth is positive, the wind grows high, and the heat follows... …, the final Qi, the fire-fearing commander, the Yang is the great transformation, the sting insects come out, the running water is not ice, the earth is Qi, the grass is growing, the men are comfortable, and the warm disease is severe.” 

    As a result, during the 6th Qi time window (i.e., from 11/22/2019 to 1/20/2020)  in the lunar year of 2019, COVID-19 broke out in Wuhan. Later on, those regions who missed the best time window when the climate is least conducive to the spread of virus, 1/20/2020 - 3/20/2020, including those of us who live in the US, have still been suffering, with some differences more or less given human “interventions”, but the general trend has been pretty consistent with what the Classic Book described.

Photo showing the Year of Gengzi from an Ancient-Modern Chinese-English Translated Version of “Yellow Emperor’s Canon of Internal Medicine” (“Class Book” in this post) the author reference for translation sometimes.

Lift the Veil of Another Epidemic within 60 days 

    Why is there a possibility of another pandemic during the 5th Qi of Gengzi, lunar year of 2020? Let's return to the Classic Book again: 

“where the Shaoyin governs the climate, the gasification runs innate, the Qi from earth is suffocating, the weather is distinct, the cold and the heat meets, the heat adds onto the dryness, the cloud travels the rain origin, the humidification works, and the rain descends as a result..., during the 5th Qi, be fearful of fire, the summer heat arrives controversially, the Yang is thus transformed, all things are still alive and prosperous, and the disease type is warm.”

    Judging from the Classic Book, the “warm disease” (infectious disease in modern medicine terms, will be elaborated in the next paragraph) in the 5th Qi of Lunar Year 2020 will not be as severe as the SARS in 2003, nor will it be as severe as COVID-19, but it is also an infectious disease. In the principle of traditional medicine, we should prevent diseases in advance, for if the prevention is not effective, even a small outbreak can become a larger epidemic. Take the COVID-19 pandemic as an example: Wuhan did not contain the virus well at the beginning, making it quickly spread into a major epidemic. Countries including the US were not able to prevent the spread in time, and thus the infection became a global pandemic that is still expanding till this day.


    So what kind of disease would this warm disease be? Let’s take a look at the climate characteristics of the 5th Qi in 2020, i.e., 9/22/2020-11/22/2020

“In the year of Gengzi, Middle Yun is too gold/metal, Dryness Qi wins, Shaoyin monarch fire reigns, Yangming dryness gold/metal at the spring, the dominating Qi energy in 5th Qi time period is Yangming dryness gold/metal, and Guest Qi is Shaoyang Xiang Fire.” 

    The above seemingly elusive ancient text can basically be explained in this way: Originally, the 5th Qi of a normal year should be transformed from the dampness of the 4th Qi (7/22/2020-11/22/2020) into the coldness of the 6th Qi (11/22/2020-1/20/2021), but it is added by the Shaoyang phase fire in the lunar year of 2020. Therefore, warm disease will occur when it’s not cold, when it should be cold in a normal situation.

    “Warm disease” is a term in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), which refers to a general category of externally contracted diseases caused by exogenous “warm evils” -- e.g., flu, swine flu, SARS, Zika, Coronavirus... all fall into this category -- which belong to the broader category of “Shang Han”. The common clinical syndromes include fever, acute excessive heat, and clinical manifestations in tongue, pulse/palpation, and urination that are typical when internal heat is present, or facilitation of dryness damaging Yin (of the body’s Yin-Yang system). 

    Warm disease includes a wide range of conditions: In general, acute exogenous infectious diseases other than those of wind-cold nature all belong to the scope of warm diseases. For example, wind warm, spring warm, summer warm, humid warm, summer heat, fall dryness, warm poison, etc. Warm disease is a common disease, its occurrence has obvious seasonality, most of which have rapid onset and rapid transmission, and most of them have varying degrees of contagious and epidemic nature.

    So, how should this new addition of warm disease be prevented in the coming two months? From the perspective of traditional medicine, the etiology of the onset during 9/22/2020-11/22/2020 is similar to that of COVID-19: the combination of Shaoyang and the fire (note: not the wildfires in nature, but “fire” in Five Phases, some inaccurately translated as Five Elements). Therefore, the COVID-19 may have another climax during the 5th Qi. But it will not be too serious, because Shaoyang phase fire is a fire in the water (ditto., as fire, water in Five Phases). In the 6th Qi of Lunar Year 2019, i.e., 11/22/2019-1/20/2020, the 6th Qi grew in water phase. Excessive prosperity punished the “lung gold/metal” (respiratory system in modern medicine terms) and caused pneumonia-like symptoms. In contrast, the dominating Qi of the 5th Qi of Lunar Year 2020 is Yangming Dry Gold/Metal, while the lung gold/metal itself is already prosperous, cannot be easily constrained. However, people with congenital weakness in the “lung”, i.e., respiratory systems, should be aware that they are still susceptible to COVID-19.

    So what will likely be the main manifestations of the warm disease this time? According to the above analysis, the symptoms are probably represented by nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, diarrhea, fever, etc.


    In one of our earlier posts, we mentioned that “there will probably be a climax in the second half of the year, likely October or November”  and stated that during the Fall 2020 time window, a majority of patients who will be deceased would have hepatobiliary symptoms. Moreover, new coronavirus-induced pneumonia will no longer be “coronavirus-infected pneumonia”, but “coronavirus-infected hepatitis”; the main symptoms are likely to be yellowing, drowsiness, high fever, constipation and related symptoms. The treatment plan will need to be changed from now on. In fact, from the view of traditional medicine, treatment plans always need to be changed or adjusted over time. Personalization is the key and any attempt for TCM standardization will reduce the effectiveness.

Source: Google Image Search. Copyright belongs to the original author/publisher.

Personalization: Core of the Forward-Looking Ancient Medicine

    After all, the core of traditional medicine, including herbal medicine, lies in personalization. Whenever feasible, TCM herbal prescription needs to take at least three factors into consideration: the patient, time, and location (even for the same kind of symptoms or disease name in Western Medicine terms). The diagnosis and treatment is based on the patient along with his or her specific syndromes, not the disease itself. If anyone you know ever wants support from consulting a traditional medicine doctor, please let us know. 

    There are also methods and home remedies to prevent and protect on a daily basis. We are going to discuss in the coming blog posts. 

Image Source: “伍懷璞:庚子年天災、肺病當道”. Copyright belongs to the original author/publisher.

*Every 60-year cycle is called a Jiazi. Three Jiazi’s make a complete cycle. 

References and Sources:

Please see the "References and Sources" section of the author's initial publication on Medium

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