Monday, April 27, 2020

Climate and Pandemic Forecast

[Generic disease forecast for lunar year 2020 can be found in a teammate's blog, an outdated one for lunar year 2019 is on her blog post too. The following focuses on the COVID-19 pandemic.] 

If you have been ignoring this part for the past two years, read on now:

While nobody has ALL the answers, universal laws help us with some. The illness tied to the new coronavirus was originally called “novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia (NCIP)”. As doctors over the world already discovered, this novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is not limited to influence respiratory system, but has also high correlation with stroke or stomach issues in different regions at various time points. The World Health Organization (WHO) renamed it COVID-19, which is short for “COronaVIrus Disease 2019”. This re-naming is brilliant since “coronavirus-infected pneumonia” is likely to change to “coronavirus-infected hepatitis” in the fall.

The mortality rate will continue to change with the climate, and it should begin to decline in July. Although there will be a climax in the second half of the year, this climax should occur in October or November. During the Fall 2020 time window, a majority of patients who will be deceased should have hepatobiliary symptoms. Moreover, new coronavirus-induced pneumonia will no longer be “coronavirus-infected pneumonia”,” but coronavirus-infected hepatitis”; the main symptoms are likely to be yellowing, drowsiness, high fever, constipation and related symptoms. The treatment plan will need to be changed from this time on.

The good news is by February 2021, the lethality and transmission capacity of the virus should begin to disappear. Within a short period of time, some journals may publish some papers, and research on mortality and infectivity. By then, there will be some very positive data telling us that the pandemic has been under control and slowly the exchanges and travels between countries can be relaxed.

Note that this is based on deep climate oriented theory called "Five Yun Six Qi", assuming little strong human intervention or Act of God. So if the public health policies and behaviors are strong enough to impact the trend, then things can come out differently.

No comments:

Post a Comment